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The growth that the hotel industry experienced in 2011 will likely continue in 2012 as rising travel spending and a drop in unemployment promise strong business this year, several hotel executives said during a panel discussion at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit. Hotel REITs are ready to start their acquisitions again, after deal flow slowed to a crawl in Q4. Deals, such as LaSalle Hotel Properties' $396.2 million acquisition of Park Central in New York and Chesapeake Lodging Trust's purchase of Holiday Inn New York City Midtown-31st Street for $52.2 million, are beginning to close. "I think investors are getting much more confident," said Enrique Torres, an analyst at Green Street Advisors. "We should see an uptick [in deals] over what we saw in the last four months." With billions of dollars of debt scheduled to mature in 2012, hotel companies are scrambling to restructure or refinance. CEO John F. Davis said Wednesday Roomkey.com, founded by six leading brands, will allow consumers to compare brands but still book direct and will charge “significantly less” commissions. Los Angeles hotels, however, post a 2.4% decrease. Rates are expected to rise nationwide as travel in the U.S. grows, creating more demand for hotel rooms. After the 29 March article “Options limited for owners facing renovations," few lenders opened their floodgates throughout 2011. And brands are knocking even harder on the door with required capital improvements. The dispute over whether lenders may be allowed to credit bid for hotel assets has reached the U.S. Supreme Court, which is preparing to hear a related case in April. The hotel industry will experience slower growth in revenue per available room over 2012, increasing by about 5% compared with about 8% this year, several industry analysts predict. What’s Your City’s Claim to Fame? Take action to define your identity and image. Nov. 28, 2011
By Steve Van
What! Did Mr. Hotel Default say that? Absolutely. The fundamentals for hotel asset appreciation during the next five years ... A panel of prognosticators outlined their latest forecasts among other insights during a general-session panel at the AH&LA’s 2011 Hospitality Leadership Forum. An impending wave of debt maturities amid a shortage of financing will lead to a significant increase in hotel foreclosures in 2012, says Robert Sonnenblick of Sonnenblick - Del Rio Development. Securities ratings firm Realpoint reports that about $21.7 billion in commercial mortgage-backed securities on 232 hotels will come due over the next 12 months. Business travelers are playing a pivotal role in the increased demand for U.S. hotel rooms. Tim Hart, executive vice president and head of business intelligence at TravelClick, says the expected economy-related decline just isn't happening. "Markets that are most dependent on the business traveler are the ones that are perhaps performing the best," Hart said. A trip to Istanbul for the International Society of Hospitality Consultants conference reveals just how intertwined hotels are in global affairs—whether it’s political, economic or just for fun. A TravelClick study on hotel bookings in North America forecasts strong gains for the industry in 2012. Money is hard to come by for any hotel, let alone brandless boutiques. Fortunately, there exist tax credits and cost reliefs for adaptive reuse projects. Despite numerous threats to the general economy, impressive growth in the private sector has led to growing incomes among employees and thus a greater demand for travel and lodging, say analysts at PKF Hospitality Research. In addition, a pervading trend toward low room rates should ensure steady demand if the economy takes a turn for the worse. The hotel industry faces a positive outlook despite a sharp dip in hotel stocks in the third quarter and is in no danger of an impending crash, said Thomas J. Corcoran Jr., chairman of FelCor Lodging Trust, during the annual Prism Hotels & Resorts hotel conference in Grapevine, Texas. Hotels' revenue per available room will grow by 7.2% this year, boosted by demand from affluent travelers, PKF Hospitality Research says. Kevin Crissey of UBS Investment Bank summed up a panel at the Hotel Data Conference best by suggesting the industry ought to be focused on how to add demand rather than shift it. STR’s Randy Smith and Mark Lomanno on Thursday expounded on current issues affecting the hotel industry—among them supply and ownership complexities—during the Hotel Data Conference. In order to be successful, hotel owners and operators should ensure loan requests have the following seven attributes. Once a clear process is defined, make sure the appropriate documentation is available to provide to a lender or finance professional. To begin, borrowers need to manage how they access the capital markets with the same precision they manage their properties. As hotel buyers and REITs step up hotel property acquisitions, the lodging industry is seeing more rooms being renovated than constructed. STR’s quarterly segmentation reviews show some strong performance gains for the group sector, which was hit hard during the recession. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner acknowledged this week that small businesses have yet to benefit from a $30 billion loan fund established by Congress nine months ago. Geithner said regulators are checking the financial health of 869 community banks that have applied to administer the loans, and "we're close to being able to unleash that capital." Attendees at the annual AAHOA conference didn’t hesitate to voice their opinions as brand executives espoused the importance of CapEx and PIPs. Lending by big banks dropped 4.9 percent in the first quarter of 2011, according to a new report. The consolidation of companies involved in marketing and management of vacation rental properties is expected to dramatically boost growth in this specialized market, industry leaders say. The extend-and-pretend function for hotels will be disabled this year by the Gatekeepers of Hotel Loan Health (franchisors Marriott, Hilton, Starwood, IHG, et al.). What can lenders do?
STR senior VP Bobby Bowers discussed eight trends that are shaping the road to recovery in the U.S. hotel industry. As technology, resources and analytics continue to evolve, they will undoubtedly provide us with greater insights and strengthen the position of individuals tasked with answering this million-dollar question. The U.S. hotel industry's performance improved during the post-Easter week, with five of the seven chain-scale segments gaining double-digit RevPAR increases, an STR report showed. The real estate funds of Goldman Sachs Group are betting that the hotel industry is in for a full recovery. The funds have scrambled to retain major hotel portfolios bought during the height of the property boom. Having displayed flexibility during the downturn, brands are cracking down on property improvement plans. Owners who resist likely will be shown the door, according to leaders on a panel at the Hunter Hotel Investment Conference. The SBA 7(a) and USDA B&I programs continue to be one of the best, if not only, ways for smaller owner-operators and hoteliers in secondary and tertiary markets to access debt. The U.S. Small Business Administration will offer guaranteed loans to small businesses to refinance commercial real estate debt with impending balloon payments. The delinquency rate on loans included in conduit and fusion U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) deals skyrocketed 79 percent over the past 12 months... Editor-In-Chief Glenn Haussman examines why industry stats and your hotel’s bottom line don’t add up. And then what you can do about it. With Success of the Trendy W Chain, More 'Boutique' and 'Lifestyle' Brands Come on to the Scene Westin GM engineers a pioneering program that teaches managers to take ownership and improves the bottom line. Independent hotels are no longer the forgotten stepchild of the global hotel industry. The segment is leveraging its unique guest experiences with the power of online distribution channels to compete with the major chains—or in some cases, teaming up with them. Industry experts are already seeing increases in 2011 hotel valuations, particularly at the upper end of the market in major metro areas. Many entrepreneurs are on a roller coaster of hope and fear, writes Michael H. Felberbaum, but the best way to steady yourself is to be realistic. He advises taking a hard look at your financial data and turning to a practical friend for real advice, as well as giving up on the self-help illusions of optimism in favor of straight up honesty. In the fourth quarter of 2010, the hotel industry reported increases in occupancy rates, average daily rates and revenue per available room, according to STR data. "The U.S. hotel industry continued its steady climb toward full recovery in the fourth quarter of 2010," said Bobby Bowers, senior vice president at STR. The increase in hotel transactions and low cost of debt and equity have driven down rates of return to pre-recession levels. This article sets forth an overview of recent hotel cap and discount rate trends and provides an outlook for 2011 Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels predicts as much as a 25% increase in hotel sales and acquisitions in the Americas this year as foreign investors and real estate investment trusts aim to deploy cash. London-based Jones Lang says transactions could total $13 billion in 2011, up from about $10.5 billion last year. "Due to additional capital raises, REITs are expected to continue to be dominant buyers in 2011, and private equity groups and institutional investors will increasingly join the mix as leverage levels and terms improve," says Arthur Adler, managing director and Americas CEO at Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels. New brands are a dime a dozen, OTAs have rendered hotel rooms commodities, and consumers shop primarily on price. So do brands still matter? HotelNewsNow.com explores that question and more in this special report. How accurate are STR’s forecasts? Here’s a report card for the past five years.
The price-driven peddling of online travel agencies like Expedia, Priceline and Travelocity made the booking process all about rate. Guests are less likely to seek out specific brand and hotel chains than ever before, favoring instead basement-bottom bargains and deals. Don’t write off the commercial mortgage-backed securities market just yet.
For two years, big investors watched the implosion of the lodging industry as hotel values plummeted more than 50 percent. Now as private equity giants like the Blackstone Group and entrepreneurs like Richard Branson are diving into the sector, others are starting to think it has finally hit bottom and may be bouncing back. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. are seeking to increase financing for hotels as lenders recover more money from loans backed by lodging than from debt secured by other types of commercial real estate. The Asian American Hotel Owners Association can expect an uphill climb when it takes on the online travel agencies at their own game. Stop being your own worst enemy in regards to your bottom line and get the confidence to boost those rates now. Hoteliers aren’t exactly breaking open the champagne now that occupancy and room rates are inching up, but those who have committed to upgrades and renovations are feeling splashes of hope that their investments are paying off or will soon reap benefits. The average selling price per room (ASP/room) accelerated 86% to $107,988 for the first nine months of 2010, compared to the 2009 year-end total of $58,190 per room. Choice Hotels International exceeded market expectations with third-quarter profit reaching $40.5 million on an increase in revenue per available room. Choice, which franchises EconoLodge, Comfort Inn and other brands, raised its full-year earnings target to $1.77 to $1.79 a share. The company signed 20 hotel management and franchise contracts representing approximately 4,500 rooms, and opened 17 hotels and resorts with approximately 3,300 rooms in Q3. American Express Business Travel said that business-class airfares could return to pre-recession prices next year with some tickets surging as much as 10%. The American Express division also forecast an increase in lodging costs. At this week’s BITAC Purchasing & Design West attendees all say the industry's bread will be buttered by myriad renovations during the next few years. Here’s why. The number of major U.S. hotel sales through Q3 2010 is double the number through the same time last year. Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels released the firm's updated U.S. hotel transaction forecast, which pegs deal volume increasing to $6.5 billion for 2010, up $2 billion. Transaction volumes totaled $814 million in the first quarter of 2010, increasing to $1.5 billion in the second quarter and jumping to $2.2 billion in the third quarter Travelers who tend to stay at boutique hotels enjoy their distinct experiences, while those who lean toward chain hotels appreciate the consistency. Hotels’ pre-tax operating profit during the downturn is a sign that hoteliers have become savvy hotel managers, STR CEO and co-founder Randy Smith said during a keynote address at the Cornell Hospitality Research Summit. Asset managers discuss key topics facing the hotel industry during the International Society of Hospitality Consultants conference. Government figures show that spending on hotel rooms, rental cars, airline tickets and other travel-related products and services increased 3% in the second quarter. The broader economy grew 1.6%. The figures show that Americans have caught the travel bug once again, helping the industry bounce back from the downturn more quickly than other sectors. Fundamentals have been solidifying all year, now people are feeling good about 2011 and downright giddy in 2012. Two years ago, the credit markets seized, causing trading to hotel assets to stop. The hotel industry has been anxiously awaiting the day when the market would return. A flurry of activity has helped the industry, albeit not in a traditional form. Hotel investment activity is picking up and surpassing other types of real estate deals as buyers see promise in rising occupancies and room rates. The average U.S. hotel should see a 2.3% increase in net operating income in 2010, according to Colliers PKF Hospitality Research. Demand surged in the first half of the year, and the trend is expected to continue, with the expected growth representing the first annual increase in net operating income since 2007. Hotels experienced a 37.8% cumulative decline in profit from 2007 through 2009. According to Ypartnership's 2010 Portrait Of American Travelers, the U.S. leisure travel market has finally stabilized. In fact, the data suggest the industry can expect a modest increase in demand in the year ahead. Georgia State University has purchased two hotels in Atlanta for an undisclosed amount. The university plans to convert the former Wyndham Garden Hotel and Baymont Inn, which, combined, used to be a Holiday Inn, to student housing. As if spiraling operating fundamentals weren’t enough to deal with, hoteliers need also to contend with outside influences on the industry. Changes to SBA loan limits could mean more money to fix up a distressed property, or better options when it comes to finding good properties to buy. Have you taken a good look at the real cost of the product improvement plan you are signing? You may be surprised when it costs more or takes far longer than anticipated to achieve that new room rate. Minimize the problem by following these five steps during your negotiations with the brand. The U.S. top 26 markets RevPAR-recovery leader remains New Orleans. There are many reasons for confidence in the hotel industry's recovery: transient demand is back, rates are improving, unemployment has bottomed out, corporate America is doing well and inflation is minimal. There are several factors that cloud the hotel recovery horizon: growth rate comparables are easy, group business is not back, new supply must be absorbed and NYC strength skews the data. Between last spring and the same period in 2009, just over 5,200 restaurants closed their doors, most of them by independent operators. The U.S. hotel industry reported increases in occupancy and RevPAR for the first-half of 2010. In an interview, Hilton CEO Chris Nassetta says the company expects the bulk of its growth in coming years to take place outside the U.S. As much as 40% of the company's development pipeline is currently outside of the U.S., compared with 15% two years ago, he said, and the global pipeline is at 900 hotels and nearly 135,000 rooms. Using geographic information systems software to understand the nature of fundamental shifts in our industry is becoming more important to all participants. Innkeepers USA Trust agreed to a prepackaged bankruptcy filing that will leave real-estate entities of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., one of its biggest creditors, with substantially all of the equity in the reorganized company. Panelists at the ALIS Summer Update have positive news for the hotel industry, but there are a few things to keep an eye on. A panel of asset managers shared their secrets for surviving the downturn and preparing for recovery during a breakout session at the Midwest Lodging Investment Summit. These are some of the conclusions of a white paper recently published by PKF-Hospitality Research, whose purpose was to quantify the accuracy of their proprietary Hotel Horizons reports. Ten Ideas Reported in the Latest Cornell Hospitality Report Commercial card volumes last year declined for the first time in history as organizations implemented across-the-board spending cuts At last week's AAHOA conference, brand leaders are feeling a comeback. Panelists were surprised by the Q1 performance pickup, but said it’s not yet time for a transactions surge. Property improvement plans play a big role in turnaround plans. But financing for PIPs remains difficult to find. Transactions are up, but the market dynamics have experts divided on the best strategy for buyers and sellers. How should the travel industry get its message out via social media? Hotel leaders assemble often enough that the conversation on stage should advance, not repeat. Researchers point to past rate-cutting, and future rate recovery, as a main concern moving forward. Recovery in demand will be shaped like a V and ADR will be shaped like a U, they say. One of the consequences of the Great Recession was the emergence of a new form of leisure travel called a staycation. Last year, Ypartnership research suggested it was more myth than reality, but this year the data tell a different story and the implication for hotel marketers is clear. The combination of improving fundamentals in the hotel sector and relatively low prices is likely to keep real estate investment trusts busy this year. As hotel investors step up activity in swooping in on distressed properties, several key issues should be considered in determining the best deals. Hotels represent a disproportionate amount of loans in special servicing. So, what now? The average U.S. hotel suffered a 35.4-percent decline in profits during 2009. This is the greatest annual fall-off in the bottom line since PKF-HR began tracking the industry in the 1930s. The capital markets are functioning better than they were, but that doesn’t mean they have completely recovered. As the economic recession eases and travelers return to the road, let’s take a look at the performance of the 25 largest hotel markets (excluding Las Vegas) to see how much or how little these markets have recovered. Best practices recommendation: Focus on hotel marketing plans and rate-obscuring tactics Marriott International exceeded analysts' expectations by posting net earnings of $83 million, or 22 cents a share, in the first quarter, compared with a net loss of $23 million, or 6 cents a share, in the same quarter in 2009. The U.S. hotel industry reported occupancy increases for the first quarter of 2010, according to data from STR. Hotel rates should continue to decline throughout the year, but revenue could make a strong rebound in 2012, according to PKF Hospitality Research The court held that a franchisee who is offered and signs a renewal franchise agreement cannot maintain a claim for unlawful nonrenewal under the PMPA. Having two branded hotel properties under one roof is becoming more popular as developers see the efficiencies of such projects. The hotel industry is showing signs of heading in the right direction, but a full-scale recovery has yet to begin. Fitch says U.S. hotel defaults could reach 30 percent in two years. At investment conferences last year, experts salivated at the prospect of a flood of distressed properties predicted to hit the market in 2010. Potential buyers are now finding, however, that all that glitters is not gold. Here are some myths about distressed properties and the realities of the market. Before you pick up the phone to call your lender, read these pointers on distressed-loan guidance. Now is the time to find deeply discounted debt, such as KSL Capital Partners’ reported acquisition of $380 million of La Costa Resort & Spa’s debt for $120 million These days overwhelmed operators are turning toward outside pros to get their bottom lines in order. Here’s the deal. The next year will be a pivotal one for franchisees. Here are five things that every franchisee should keep in mind. Hotel Check-In has learned that the Ritz-Carlton Lake Las Vegas in Henderson, Nev., will close its doors for good on May 2, 2010, which will put around 400 employees out of work. Hotels have the highest rates of loan delinquencies in all classes of commercial real estate, according to data provider Trepp. Smith was recognized for his legacy in pioneering global hotel benchmarking The two strategies are not mutually exclusive and the decision-making process for all parties should naturally take both into account. If lenders are looking for some encouraging news on their distressed hotel asset sales prospects, they are not going to get it anytime soon. ALIS and the HBI meeting give some much-needed guidance to where the hotel industry is heading in 2010. The U.S. hotel industry is projected to end 2010 with decreases in two of the three key performance measurements, according to STR’s monthly forecast update. Hoteliers say they're focused on the best recovery strategies, but forecasters are all over the map trying to pinpoint exactly how long that recovery will take. Revenue per available room fell 16.7 percent to US$53.71 during 2009, according to year-end reports from Smith Travel Research. Lenders have filed to foreclose on the 400-room Four Seasons Resort and Club Dallas at Las Colinas, considered one of Texas' highest-rated hotels. Stocks of real-estate investment trusts that own hotels staged a sharp rebound late last year. Whether that heady performance is warranted is subject to debate. HIL went up 1.4 percent in November - the eighth consecutive month of increase for the indicator. Discounted payoffs, note sales, short sales and rescue capital are strategies that can help a borrower retain control of a hotel. Dealing with your lender in today’s economic climate is like undergoing a personality critique with a particularly blunt self-help guru: You might not like what either tells you, but you’ll be better off because of it. Nine of the top 20 Fitch-rated specially serviced loans by dollar balance are collateralized by hotels or have a hotel component. In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy fell 6.4 percent to 52.6 percent, ADR dropped 9.9 percent to US$95.86, and RevPAR decreased 15.7 percent to finish at US$50.47. Bill Marriott, the chief executive of hotel giant Marriott International, said Thursday the hospitality industry is just beginning to see tentative signs of an economic recovery. Signs of a recovery for the U.S. hotel industry might be few and far between as 2009 creeps to a close, but executives at Smith Travel Research think there’s reason for optimism in the future. While many industry segments are shrinking in the face of operational belt-tightening, layoffs and other recession-related efficiencies, lenders and special servicers are experiencing a wave of new business as they deal with the intricacies of loan workouts. Demand in the lodging industry has started to trend upward and the worst days of the downturn are likely over, said Smith Travel Research president Mark V. Lomanno at last weekend's AHLA Fall Conference in New York. Intercontinental Prepares to Sever Ties With Properties That Fail to Renovate as Part of Overhaul ... and the end is 26 months from now. The Fed and most lenders are driving commercial real estate into a box canyon. Here are some thoughts from a recent major real-estate conference on where the industry and economy are headed Strategic Hotels & Resorts announced it closed on its disposition of the Four Seasons Mexico City hotel to an affiliate of Meridia Capital for US$54.0 million. Despite hurdles, it’s possible to restructure a CMBS loan. There are several types of modifications that have been done recently. A demand recovery has begun in some segments. Can you guess which ones? The third-party Internet site relationship has always been love-hate for hotel owners and operators. The rift between Expedia and Choice is one that will define industry protocols for years to come Major hotel companies are raft with ideas to help their franchisees succeed. Here’s what some are doing to counter the negative economy. The extended industry contraction that began in mid 2008 continues through the third quarter of 2009. There is an old adage, “Past behavior is the best predictor of future performance”. An index based on online hotel bookings found that the overall average price of a hotel room worldwide fell 17% in the first half of 2009 compared with the same period the previous year. Hotel owners are not particularly good at dealing with a hotel that becomes financially distressed. Here are points to ponder when deciding whether or not to file for bankruptcy. An updated forecast from PricewaterhouseCoopers predicts that hotel occupancy will rise late this year and into next year and rates will remain discounted to attract travelers. The Hotel Industry Leading indicator can be used in the present to gain a better understanding of where the industry is headed. As hotel operators dig deep into discounting trenches, the biggest question remains how the industry will regain control of its rates. As the capital markets completely dried up during the past year and borrowers had no other options, special servicers had no choice but to foreclose on an otherwise good borrower or offer some sort of extension. Now they’re granting extensions regularly. While recent signs point to positive things ahead, there’s going to be plenty of bumps on the road to recovery, company presidents told Memphis gathering. Headlines are declaring we're out of the recession. But demand numbers throughout the world are pointing toward a different conclusion. At this week's BITAC, the new construction pipeline was examined for new openings and project cancellations. Starwood Hotels & Resorts is upping the ante on efforts to bring in guests during the economic slump, offering rate discounts of as much as 50% at nearly 600 of its properties around the world. Everyone expected floods of distressed debt and foreclosed commercial real-estate properties coming to market as well as many bankruptcies. Here are the facts. As hotels continue to struggle in the economic downturn, defaults on hotel loans are expected to increase by as much as $2 billion in the next quarter, and as many as 1 in 5 in the U.S. may default on loans through 2010, experts say. One credit-rating firm predicts that a full third of the $8.6 billion in securities backed by hotel loans that are due in 2010 are at risk of defaulting. A recap of the most common types of commercial real-estate loans made during the past 10 years. When close competitors cut their prices, the temptation for hotel operators is to follow with reductions of their own. While that strategy may increase occupancy, it reduces revenue per average room (RevPAR), when compared to a hotel’s competitive group. Marriott International and Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide are among U.S. hotel operators that may need four years to restore room rates to 2008 levels after slashing prices to spur demand. The economic recession has caused an increase in the number of management disputes. Both sides need to work together to improve underperforming properties. Performance Challenges Trigger Owner, Manager, and Lender Issues It’s no secret times are tough. Truth is, even the most seasoned professionals are experiencing plenty of angst these days. And it’s especially true for those tasked with keeping track of all that cash coming into and going out of lodging company coffers. Hotel industry data analysts Mark Lomanno and Steve Rushmore give sobering statistics about hotel performance and value. Jack Welch was right when he said this recession provides opportunities in the hotel segment; it's up to investors to approach it wisely. As 2009 progresses and lending begins to return, hotel conversions likely will be a predominant topic of discussions among industry leaders. STR will continue to watch conversion trends and report on any new data findings. Hoteliers should consider six factors before approaching lenders to modify loans. AAHOA panelists urge hoteliers considering selling their properties to do so soon, because waiting will be costly. When lenders finally resume making hotel loans, most will be earmarked for the purchase of existing real estate, not new development - good news for hotel operators because equilibrium will be created between supply and demand. There is no penalty for waiting for the right acquisition as discounts on hotel values continue grow. Hotels have a 40-percent decline in value from their 2007 underwriting. The hotel industry should learn from the financial crisis. Lending, which has changed significantly, will be slow to return to volumes of the past. Hotel developers are poised to take advantage of stalled residential projects. The hotel industry’s development pipeline is viewed through rose-colored glasses too often, but the simple fact is there are few—if any—projects being funded. The first indications that business travelers think getting back on the road is a good idea has been confirmed. Here is the scoop. The casino company says it will breach financial covenants if adverse conditions in the economy and gaming industry continue. Before default, go to your lender or servicer and try to get their attention to talk to you. Assume the worst and protect yourself. Here are 10 trends caused by the global economic meltdown, and what they will mean for business travelers in 2009.
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