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William R. Carlson has been named executive director of Select Registry™, Distinguished Inns of North America. In his new role, Carlson will oversee strategic planning and marketing initiatives that build upon the organization's 40-year history as the premier association of critically acclaimed inns, B&Bs and small boutique hotels across the U.S. and Canada. The U.S. top 26 markets RevPAR-recovery leader remains New Orleans. There are many reasons for confidence in the hotel industry's recovery: transient demand is back, rates are improving, unemployment has bottomed out, corporate America is doing well and inflation is minimal. There are several factors that cloud the hotel recovery horizon: growth rate comparables are easy, group business is not back, new supply must be absorbed and NYC strength skews the data. Between last spring and the same period in 2009, just over 5,200 restaurants closed their doors, most of them by independent operators. The U.S. hotel industry reported increases in occupancy and RevPAR for the first-half of 2010. In an interview, Hilton CEO Chris Nassetta says the company expects the bulk of its growth in coming years to take place outside the U.S. As much as 40% of the company's development pipeline is currently outside of the U.S., compared with 15% two years ago, he said, and the global pipeline is at 900 hotels and nearly 135,000 rooms. Using geographic information systems software to understand the nature of fundamental shifts in our industry is becoming more important to all participants. Innkeepers USA Trust agreed to a prepackaged bankruptcy filing that will leave real-estate entities of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., one of its biggest creditors, with substantially all of the equity in the reorganized company. Panelists at the ALIS Summer Update have positive news for the hotel industry, but there are a few things to keep an eye on. A panel of asset managers shared their secrets for surviving the downturn and preparing for recovery during a breakout session at the Midwest Lodging Investment Summit. These are some of the conclusions of a white paper recently published by PKF-Hospitality Research, whose purpose was to quantify the accuracy of their proprietary Hotel Horizons reports. Ten Ideas Reported in the Latest Cornell Hospitality Report Commercial card volumes last year declined for the first time in history as organizations implemented across-the-board spending cuts At last week's AAHOA conference, brand leaders are feeling a comeback. Panelists were surprised by the Q1 performance pickup, but said it’s not yet time for a transactions surge. Property improvement plans play a big role in turnaround plans. But financing for PIPs remains difficult to find. Transactions are up, but the market dynamics have experts divided on the best strategy for buyers and sellers. How should the travel industry get its message out via social media? Hotel leaders assemble often enough that the conversation on stage should advance, not repeat. Researchers point to past rate-cutting, and future rate recovery, as a main concern moving forward. Recovery in demand will be shaped like a V and ADR will be shaped like a U, they say. One of the consequences of the Great Recession was the emergence of a new form of leisure travel called a staycation. Last year, Ypartnership research suggested it was more myth than reality, but this year the data tell a different story and the implication for hotel marketers is clear. The combination of improving fundamentals in the hotel sector and relatively low prices is likely to keep real estate investment trusts busy this year. As hotel investors step up activity in swooping in on distressed properties, several key issues should be considered in determining the best deals. Hotels represent a disproportionate amount of loans in special servicing. So, what now? The average U.S. hotel suffered a 35.4-percent decline in profits during 2009. This is the greatest annual fall-off in the bottom line since PKF-HR began tracking the industry in the 1930s. The capital markets are functioning better than they were, but that doesn’t mean they have completely recovered. As the economic recession eases and travelers return to the road, let’s take a look at the performance of the 25 largest hotel markets (excluding Las Vegas) to see how much or how little these markets have recovered. Best practices recommendation: Focus on hotel marketing plans and rate-obscuring tactics Marriott International exceeded analysts' expectations by posting net earnings of $83 million, or 22 cents a share, in the first quarter, compared with a net loss of $23 million, or 6 cents a share, in the same quarter in 2009. The U.S. hotel industry reported occupancy increases for the first quarter of 2010, according to data from STR. Hotel rates should continue to decline throughout the year, but revenue could make a strong rebound in 2012, according to PKF Hospitality Research The court held that a franchisee who is offered and signs a renewal franchise agreement cannot maintain a claim for unlawful nonrenewal under the PMPA. Having two branded hotel properties under one roof is becoming more popular as developers see the efficiencies of such projects. The hotel industry is showing signs of heading in the right direction, but a full-scale recovery has yet to begin. Fitch says U.S. hotel defaults could reach 30 percent in two years. At investment conferences last year, experts salivated at the prospect of a flood of distressed properties predicted to hit the market in 2010. Potential buyers are now finding, however, that all that glitters is not gold. Here are some myths about distressed properties and the realities of the market. Before you pick up the phone to call your lender, read these pointers on distressed-loan guidance. Now is the time to find deeply discounted debt, such as KSL Capital Partners’ reported acquisition of $380 million of La Costa Resort & Spa’s debt for $120 million These days overwhelmed operators are turning toward outside pros to get their bottom lines in order. Here’s the deal. The next year will be a pivotal one for franchisees. Here are five things that every franchisee should keep in mind. Hotel Check-In has learned that the Ritz-Carlton Lake Las Vegas in Henderson, Nev., will close its doors for good on May 2, 2010, which will put around 400 employees out of work. Hotels have the highest rates of loan delinquencies in all classes of commercial real estate, according to data provider Trepp. Smith was recognized for his legacy in pioneering global hotel benchmarking The two strategies are not mutually exclusive and the decision-making process for all parties should naturally take both into account. If lenders are looking for some encouraging news on their distressed hotel asset sales prospects, they are not going to get it anytime soon. ALIS and the HBI meeting give some much-needed guidance to where the hotel industry is heading in 2010. The U.S. hotel industry is projected to end 2010 with decreases in two of the three key performance measurements, according to STR’s monthly forecast update. Hoteliers say they're focused on the best recovery strategies, but forecasters are all over the map trying to pinpoint exactly how long that recovery will take. Revenue per available room fell 16.7 percent to US$53.71 during 2009, according to year-end reports from Smith Travel Research. Lenders have filed to foreclose on the 400-room Four Seasons Resort and Club Dallas at Las Colinas, considered one of Texas' highest-rated hotels. Stocks of real-estate investment trusts that own hotels staged a sharp rebound late last year. Whether that heady performance is warranted is subject to debate. HIL went up 1.4 percent in November - the eighth consecutive month of increase for the indicator. Discounted payoffs, note sales, short sales and rescue capital are strategies that can help a borrower retain control of a hotel. Dealing with your lender in today’s economic climate is like undergoing a personality critique with a particularly blunt self-help guru: You might not like what either tells you, but you’ll be better off because of it. Nine of the top 20 Fitch-rated specially serviced loans by dollar balance are collateralized by hotels or have a hotel component. In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy fell 6.4 percent to 52.6 percent, ADR dropped 9.9 percent to US$95.86, and RevPAR decreased 15.7 percent to finish at US$50.47. Bill Marriott, the chief executive of hotel giant Marriott International, said Thursday the hospitality industry is just beginning to see tentative signs of an economic recovery. Signs of a recovery for the U.S. hotel industry might be few and far between as 2009 creeps to a close, but executives at Smith Travel Research think there’s reason for optimism in the future. While many industry segments are shrinking in the face of operational belt-tightening, layoffs and other recession-related efficiencies, lenders and special servicers are experiencing a wave of new business as they deal with the intricacies of loan workouts. Demand in the lodging industry has started to trend upward and the worst days of the downturn are likely over, said Smith Travel Research president Mark V. Lomanno at last weekend's AHLA Fall Conference in New York. Intercontinental Prepares to Sever Ties With Properties That Fail to Renovate as Part of Overhaul ... and the end is 26 months from now. The Fed and most lenders are driving commercial real estate into a box canyon. Here are some thoughts from a recent major real-estate conference on where the industry and economy are headed Strategic Hotels & Resorts announced it closed on its disposition of the Four Seasons Mexico City hotel to an affiliate of Meridia Capital for US$54.0 million. Despite hurdles, it’s possible to restructure a CMBS loan. There are several types of modifications that have been done recently. A demand recovery has begun in some segments. Can you guess which ones? The third-party Internet site relationship has always been love-hate for hotel owners and operators. The rift between Expedia and Choice is one that will define industry protocols for years to come Major hotel companies are raft with ideas to help their franchisees succeed. Here’s what some are doing to counter the negative economy. The extended industry contraction that began in mid 2008 continues through the third quarter of 2009. There is an old adage, “Past behavior is the best predictor of future performance”. An index based on online hotel bookings found that the overall average price of a hotel room worldwide fell 17% in the first half of 2009 compared with the same period the previous year. Hotel owners are not particularly good at dealing with a hotel that becomes financially distressed. Here are points to ponder when deciding whether or not to file for bankruptcy. An updated forecast from PricewaterhouseCoopers predicts that hotel occupancy will rise late this year and into next year and rates will remain discounted to attract travelers. The Hotel Industry Leading indicator can be used in the present to gain a better understanding of where the industry is headed. As hotel operators dig deep into discounting trenches, the biggest question remains how the industry will regain control of its rates. As the capital markets completely dried up during the past year and borrowers had no other options, special servicers had no choice but to foreclose on an otherwise good borrower or offer some sort of extension. Now they’re granting extensions regularly. While recent signs point to positive things ahead, there’s going to be plenty of bumps on the road to recovery, company presidents told Memphis gathering. Headlines are declaring we're out of the recession. But demand numbers throughout the world are pointing toward a different conclusion. At this week's BITAC, the new construction pipeline was examined for new openings and project cancellations. Starwood Hotels & Resorts is upping the ante on efforts to bring in guests during the economic slump, offering rate discounts of as much as 50% at nearly 600 of its properties around the world. Everyone expected floods of distressed debt and foreclosed commercial real-estate properties coming to market as well as many bankruptcies. Here are the facts. As hotels continue to struggle in the economic downturn, defaults on hotel loans are expected to increase by as much as $2 billion in the next quarter, and as many as 1 in 5 in the U.S. may default on loans through 2010, experts say. One credit-rating firm predicts that a full third of the $8.6 billion in securities backed by hotel loans that are due in 2010 are at risk of defaulting. A recap of the most common types of commercial real-estate loans made during the past 10 years. When close competitors cut their prices, the temptation for hotel operators is to follow with reductions of their own. While that strategy may increase occupancy, it reduces revenue per average room (RevPAR), when compared to a hotel’s competitive group. Marriott International and Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide are among U.S. hotel operators that may need four years to restore room rates to 2008 levels after slashing prices to spur demand. The economic recession has caused an increase in the number of management disputes. Both sides need to work together to improve underperforming properties. Performance Challenges Trigger Owner, Manager, and Lender Issues It’s no secret times are tough. Truth is, even the most seasoned professionals are experiencing plenty of angst these days. And it’s especially true for those tasked with keeping track of all that cash coming into and going out of lodging company coffers. Hotel industry data analysts Mark Lomanno and Steve Rushmore give sobering statistics about hotel performance and value. Jack Welch was right when he said this recession provides opportunities in the hotel segment; it's up to investors to approach it wisely. As 2009 progresses and lending begins to return, hotel conversions likely will be a predominant topic of discussions among industry leaders. STR will continue to watch conversion trends and report on any new data findings. Hoteliers should consider six factors before approaching lenders to modify loans. AAHOA panelists urge hoteliers considering selling their properties to do so soon, because waiting will be costly. When lenders finally resume making hotel loans, most will be earmarked for the purchase of existing real estate, not new development - good news for hotel operators because equilibrium will be created between supply and demand. There is no penalty for waiting for the right acquisition as discounts on hotel values continue grow. Hotels have a 40-percent decline in value from their 2007 underwriting. The hotel industry should learn from the financial crisis. Lending, which has changed significantly, will be slow to return to volumes of the past. Hotel developers are poised to take advantage of stalled residential projects. The hotel industry’s development pipeline is viewed through rose-colored glasses too often, but the simple fact is there are few—if any—projects being funded. The first indications that business travelers think getting back on the road is a good idea has been confirmed. Here is the scoop. The casino company says it will breach financial covenants if adverse conditions in the economy and gaming industry continue. Before default, go to your lender or servicer and try to get their attention to talk to you. Assume the worst and protect yourself. Here are 10 trends caused by the global economic meltdown, and what they will mean for business travelers in 2009.
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